I'm an independent equity researcher and macro analyst publishing institutional-grade investment research through The Capital Thesis.
My research runs on a structured, multi-step...Read moreI'm an independent equity researcher and macro analyst publishing institutional-grade investment research through The Capital Thesis.
My research runs on a structured, multi-step analytical workflow that I built from the ground up. Every name I cover goes through the same disciplined process — no shortcuts, no skipped steps.
I start by breaking down the business model from primary sources: SEC filings, earnings materials, investor presentations, and company disclosures. I want to understand what the company makes, how it makes money, who buys it, and how management reports results — all grounded in what's actually disclosed, not what's assumed.
From there, I extract management's inferred operating plan directly from earnings calls and IR materials. I'm looking for what management is doing now, what they're guiding toward, and what they're implicitly promising will show up in results. Every claim gets tagged to a specific plan lever — revenue, margin, cost, mix, capacity, product, go-to-market, or risk — and every bullet carries a proof hook so I know exactly what to watch for.
That evidence feeds into a full market narrative construction: the story management is telling investors, what the market is actually betting on, what breaks the thesis, and where proof shows up first. I build Narrative KPIs tied directly to the operating plan so I can grade the story against real numbers — not opinions.
I then run a Narrative Freshness Analysis across the last three quarterly earnings calls to determine whether management is telling a new story, evolving an existing one, or recycling old messaging. This matters because narrative drives investor behavior, and stale stories don't move stocks.
From there, I score the thesis on two dimensions: forward-looking probability, where the overall score is capped at the weakest link in the chain, and backward-looking materialization, where I grade how far the narrative has already been confirmed by reported KPIs and milestones.
I layer in a tailwinds and catalyst independence analysis — macro, secular, and company-specific — to assess whether the stock can work on its own or whether it needs a specific event to unlock value.
When applicable, I include a volatility regime and options structure analysis, matching implied versus historical volatility to identify the best defined-risk trade structure for a retail investor operating on a 1-to-3-month time horizon.
The final product is a comprehensive institutional-quality equity research report — fully assembled, professionally formatted, and built to the same standard you'd expect from a buy-side desk.
My philosophy is simple: extract the narrative, validate it against the numbers, and let price be the final arbiter. Everything I publish is evidence-based, source-anchored, and built to hold up under scrutiny.
