I need help for time series ARIMA or ARMA forecasting model
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Description
Experience Level: Expert
Hello.
I require some help on a project for time series date.
Please let me know if any clarification is needed. I am sure this must be a piece of cake for you as a professional. Please let me know of your availabilities after the study of the data below so we could meet up and discuss the statistical strategies I could use to tackle the problem.
I’ve attached a starting data set for you (please ignore all the sheets except details sheet and Clearness Index calc sheet in the excel file). This gives a full year of generation data (at 15min resolution) for a PV array with a known location. The file also has the theoretical generation data as well. Thirdly it has my simple calculation of a clearness index(actual/theoretical), to calculate the weather element. This should give you enough to get started.
As discussed you could either continue the approach of adjusting and improving the existing clearness index. Or better, use this as input data to generate a new realistic clearness index time series with the correct statistical properties. You will, of course, have to decide what are the correct statistical properties, and how to test if your final time series exhibits them.
I’ve also attached the Matlab function that can calculate the theoretical clear sky generation for a PV array at any location. I used this to create the theoretical generation in the attached excel file. You won’t need the function at this stage, but only when/if you get to the point of developing a tool that incorporates your weather time series to produce realistic PV generation data for any location.
I also have a second much better data set. This is two years of generation data at a 4-second resolution. However it is rather large (0.5GB!), so I’m not going to be able to just email it to you. If you want to take on this data, then it would turn the project a bit more data heavy, but it would also increase the value and opportunities.
PS: If you give your email, I can send the Excel and other files.
I require some help on a project for time series date.
Please let me know if any clarification is needed. I am sure this must be a piece of cake for you as a professional. Please let me know of your availabilities after the study of the data below so we could meet up and discuss the statistical strategies I could use to tackle the problem.
I’ve attached a starting data set for you (please ignore all the sheets except details sheet and Clearness Index calc sheet in the excel file). This gives a full year of generation data (at 15min resolution) for a PV array with a known location. The file also has the theoretical generation data as well. Thirdly it has my simple calculation of a clearness index(actual/theoretical), to calculate the weather element. This should give you enough to get started.
As discussed you could either continue the approach of adjusting and improving the existing clearness index. Or better, use this as input data to generate a new realistic clearness index time series with the correct statistical properties. You will, of course, have to decide what are the correct statistical properties, and how to test if your final time series exhibits them.
I’ve also attached the Matlab function that can calculate the theoretical clear sky generation for a PV array at any location. I used this to create the theoretical generation in the attached excel file. You won’t need the function at this stage, but only when/if you get to the point of developing a tool that incorporates your weather time series to produce realistic PV generation data for any location.
I also have a second much better data set. This is two years of generation data at a 4-second resolution. However it is rather large (0.5GB!), so I’m not going to be able to just email it to you. If you want to take on this data, then it would turn the project a bit more data heavy, but it would also increase the value and opportunities.
PS: If you give your email, I can send the Excel and other files.
Ash S.
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