Maths Formula

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UMESH K.Kedar P.Saqib S.Gonzalo G.Andy G. + 7 others have already sent a proposal.
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Experience Level: Intermediate
Estimated Job duration: less than 1 week
I need a mathematical formula for excel.

What I'm trying to do is work out the probability of a penalty occurring in a given premiership football match. I have the facts but basically not the knowledge. Basically I want the chance of each team and then to be able to combine them among other factors to find the probability of a penalty occurring during the match.

The data that will processing in the formula is as follows:-

1. Average number of penalties awarded each team.
2. Home/ Away advantage
3. Average number of penalties against, Applying that to the opposing teams percentage chance.
4. A factor denoting whether or not a referee is likely to award over or under the average number of penalties for each referee.
5. A factor denoting whether or not a particular match week provides more or less goals than the average.

In the end I want to combine team A v Team B throwing in the referee factor and the matchweek factor. Ultimately to provide a % chance and finally implied odds.

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