Using Swap Rates predict the outcome for Fed meeting
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Description
Experience Level: Entry
Estimated project duration: 1 day or less
Industry: Technology
Description of analysis: Comment on methodology and review the steps – no need to program
Data needed swap rates at different time periods:
Pull the swap curve from Yahoo server (freely available) or from other website into MATLAB.
Pull LIBOR for 1 year
Convert it on various treasury rates for 1-10 or other format using MATLAB functions.
Get the dates of the fed meetings and last few changes in rates.
Answer the below questions (total word limits 3-4 pages for all questions, around 500 words per question and 20 references):
How did the rates change before and after the last meeting?
Can we predict the rate change just before the Fed meeting day and compare it last meeting to find out the change? Can we use the swap curve we plan to built? Did the swap rate already priced the changes fed was about to announce?
Whether they will increase or decrease their benchmark rate and by what level?
Which rates do the Fed effect and are the shift parallel after the rate change?
Background: We prefer swaps as they much more liquid and demand supply mechanism keep them more realistic than the treasury, and also removes the interpolation problems with the treasury curve. We want to find out if the rates are already pricing the change of policy.
Note: Assume suitable illustrative numbers where required.
Reference:
http://www.mathworks.in/discovery/swap-curve.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swap_rate
http://www.swap-rates.com/USSwap.html
http://money.stackexchange.com/questions/16046/what-are-libor-swap-rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-29/brazilian-swap-rates-slide-to-four-month-low-after-central-bank.html
http://www.mathworks.in/help/finance/common-problems-in-finance.html#f10-19473
http://quant.stackexchange.com/questions/3438/why-use-swap-rates-in-a-yield-curve
http://www.yieldcurve.com/mktresearch/learningcurve/choudhry_zspread_aug2005_logo.pdf
http://www.wilmott.com/messageview.cfm?catid=8&threadid=94023
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/06/03/grand-central-predicting-timing-of-boe-rate-hikes-about-to-get-murkier/
Extra notes:
Description of analysis: Comment on methodology and review the steps – no need to program
Data needed swap rates at different time periods:
Pull the swap curve from Yahoo server (freely available) or from other website into MATLAB.
Pull LIBOR for 1 year
Convert it on various treasury rates for 1-10 or other format using MATLAB functions.
Get the dates of the fed meetings and last few changes in rates.
Answer the below questions (total word limits 3-4 pages for all questions, around 500 words per question and 20 references):
How did the rates change before and after the last meeting?
Can we predict the rate change just before the Fed meeting day and compare it last meeting to find out the change? Can we use the swap curve we plan to built? Did the swap rate already priced the changes fed was about to announce?
Whether they will increase or decrease their benchmark rate and by what level?
Which rates do the Fed effect and are the shift parallel after the rate change?
Background: We prefer swaps as they much more liquid and demand supply mechanism keep them more realistic than the treasury, and also removes the interpolation problems with the treasury curve. We want to find out if the rates are already pricing the change of policy.
Note: Assume suitable illustrative numbers where required.
Reference:
http://www.mathworks.in/discovery/swap-curve.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swap_rate
http://www.swap-rates.com/USSwap.html
http://money.stackexchange.com/questions/16046/what-are-libor-swap-rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-29/brazilian-swap-rates-slide-to-four-month-low-after-central-bank.html
http://www.mathworks.in/help/finance/common-problems-in-finance.html#f10-19473
http://quant.stackexchange.com/questions/3438/why-use-swap-rates-in-a-yield-curve
http://www.yieldcurve.com/mktresearch/learningcurve/choudhry_zspread_aug2005_logo.pdf
http://www.wilmott.com/messageview.cfm?catid=8&threadid=94023
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/06/03/grand-central-predicting-timing-of-boe-rate-hikes-about-to-get-murkier/
Extra notes:
Shivgan J.
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14 May 2024
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