Analyze Unstructured Data and Draw Insights

I need a very brilliant mind to help me analyse data related to State Government finances in Nigeria.

The essence is to draw uncommon insights from this data and advise a bank on how to position to maximise opportunities for deposit growth from the states.

A few explanations/clarifications:

1. FAAC is Federally Allocated Accounts Committee. This is revenue allocated by the Federal Government of Nigeria to the 36 states on a monthly basis. The allocation to states varies depending on various factors such as whether the state is an oil-producing state or not etc. All proceeds from oil sales accrue to the Federal Government which shares a portion of this across the states, giving priority to the states on whose land the oil is actually mined. Federally collected Value Added Tax (VAT) is also part of the revenues that the Federal Government shares to the states on a monthly basis.

Potential drivers: Oil price and production

2. IGR is Internally Generated Revenue. This refers to the revenues the States generate on their own usually from taxes on a variety of items. There typically five main sources of these revenues.


• MDAs Revenues relate to revenues generated administratively by State MDAs during the course of providing various services to residents in the State.
Potential drivers: Population.

• Direct Assessment may relate to a form of personal income tax used to assess tax for self-employed individuals. With the self-assessed tax, a new tax payer can assess him/herself, and pay the calculated amount. Direct assessment may also relate to those imposed on businesses especially (informal) by the state authorities based on the size of their activities.
Potential drivers: Number of SMEs, Ease of Doing Business

• Pay As You Earn (PAYE) is a form of personal income tax that refers to tax deducted directly from the wages and salaries of employees operating in the formal sector All employers in Nigeria are responsible for deducting Pay As You Earn (PAYE) taxes from their employees' earnings.
Potential drivers: Working population

• Road taxes are daily levies paid by commercial transporters operating within the states.
Potential drivers: Population.

• Other Taxes include various taxes Such as levies on market traders, land registration and other land related fees, development levies on individuals, pool betting/lottery/gaming fees, stamp duties on individuals etc
Potential drivers: Population.


3. Total Revenue refers to the sum of FAAC and IGR. This is the total revenue available to states to run their affair on a monthly basis. This is also where the bank's interest lies. We want to see how we can bank these funds on behalf of the states.

4. Recurrent Expenditure refers to recurring payments made by the states such as salary payments etc. I feel that looking at the revenue in isolation without considering the costs/expenditure might not be too ideal.

So, I decided to create a 'sustainability analysis' that looks at whether the Total Revenue can cover Recurrent Expenditure. Using this analysis, the states which seemed to be growing their Total Revenues at a fast rate dropped off the top of the table in terms of sustainability.

Potential drivers:

5. JAAC: This is revenue allocated directly to sub-units of the states (local governments) from the Federal Government.



Finally, I include sheet shows the various banks that have a share in terms of banking these state government revenues by the different categories. This is where I am truly need to link all the analysis on the states revenue to banks, showing how they can improve market share, or just provide any insights.

Expectations:
1. Create a model that (taking into consideration all these variables) ranks the states in order of ‘attractiveness.’ This will be a measure of revenue potential, and thus guide banks on where to focus their efforts at securing share of government funds.
2. Create a simulation that would show how total revenue might change depending over time on changes in the components ie FAAC and IGR. I have attached data on some of the potential drivers of the IGR and FAAC.
3. Visual presentation: Some ideas of possibly representing the data that come to mind include Quadrant Analysis, Matrix etc. I am open to idea.
4. A brief explanation of the insights gained above in Executive Summary format.